Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.
Thirteenth in the series, we look at the Atlanta Braves. Ranked 8th overall by John Sickels, they have 1 A-rated prospect and 15 B-rated prospects. Keith Law's 2012 organizational rankings sees their system as middle-of-the-pack at 16th overall.
Can their great pitching depth help the Braves chances to contend for years to come?
Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.
Twelfth in the series, we look at the Toronto Blue Jays. Ranked 1st overall by John Sickels, they have 15 B-rated prospects, 8 of which are B+. Here's what Keith Law had to say in his org rankings:
One of the many reasons criticism of Rogers Communications, the owner of the Blue Jays, for being stingy with free agents is so ignorant is that the club has spent aggressively in the amateur markets during the past three years, grabbing high-ceiling high school players and Latin American prospects by stockpiling picks and paying whatever it took to sign those players. They are the organization most likely to be No. 1 on this list next winter.
With so many highly ranked prospects in their system, can all their prospects hit at once and make a significant impact?
Babe Ruth was known as a high-strikeout hitter, and indeed, he led the majors in Ks 5 times, including in one season (1918) when he only batted 380 times. He retired as the all-time strikeout leader, with 1330. Yet today, the Bambino ranks just 99th all-time, right behind Dean Palmer.
Although no hitter passed 1,500 strikeouts until 1966, today 51 players have reached that milestone. To demonstrate the rise in strikeouts over time, I made a huge infographic that documents each 1,500-strikeout hitter. There are two previews below; click on either one to open up the full-size image.
The graphic itself should be fairly self-explanatory (I hope).
One interesting tidbit that I learned from making this is that the rise in high-strikeout hitters hasn't been consistent. There was a bit of a dropoff starting in the 80's and lasting until the mid-90's. Since then, though, hitters have been striking out like never before.
In case you're curious, several hitters look like good candidates to reach 1,500 strikeouts in 2012. Jason Giambi is just 20 Ks away, Ivan Rodriguez is 28 away, and Alfonso Soriano is 77 away.
Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.
Eleventh in the series, we look at the Tampa Bay Rays. Ranked 7th overall by John Sickels, they have 1 A-rated prospects and 12 B-rated prospects. Keith Law sees them much higher in his organizational rankings released last week putting them at #2 overall. Here's what he had to say:
If you favor ceiling over probability, you could make a strong argument for having the Rays ahead of the Padres, based on the fact that this system could quite easily produce six to eight players who end up as grade-60 players or better in the majors. After that first tier, however, there's a lot less probability here than there was a year or two ago, and several executives from other clubs pointed out that the Rays have a gap in their prospect pipeline coming up that will be filled only if some of their 2011 draft picks move faster than anticipated.
Aside from LHP Matt Moore ranked at #3, SS Ha-Ju Lee is #12 in Keith Law's top 25.
This Rays graphic is slightly different than the others since they clearly are within a window to win. The question for them is how long this stays open for them?
Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.
Tenth in the series, we look at the Arizona Diamondbacks. Ranked 9th overall by John Sickels, they have 3 A-rated prospects (all pitching) and 8 B-rated prospects. In Keith Law's organizational rankings released last week, he has them at #6 overall. What is really amazing is that 3 of their top prospects are rated in Keith Law's top 25:
RHP Archie Bradley (19)
RHP Trevor Bauer (21)
LHP Tyler Skaggs (25)
With the Diamondbacks #6-ranked system, will their new acquisitions of Kubel and Cahill along with the arrival of more stud pitching be enough to keep them at the top of the NL West?
The past few weeks, I've looked at the players who have hit most often in the 5th, 6th, and 7th spots in the batting order. This post focuses on the 8th spot, which is quite a different beast.
The graphic below shows the players with the most starts in the 8th spot in the lineup, as well as the players who have started in the 8th spot the highest percentage of the time (minimum 400 starts hitting 8th):
Compared to the other batting spots I've covered, the 8th spot is very well-defined. The totals are higher, and the percentages are much higher. There are a sizeable number of hitters that basically never batted anywhere but 8th. In all, 20 hitters batted 8th in at least 90% of their starts; for perspective, just 11 players hit 7th in even 50% of their starts. Only 2 players hit 6th in half of their starts.
Typically, the guys in the graphic above are terrible hitters who nonetheless played regularly because they offered strong defense at an important position (shortstop, 2nd base, or catcher).
Since some modern AL players have spent a lot of time hitting 9th, I also ran the numbers for the 8th and 9th spots combined. I give those numbers, as well as the ones for the 9th spot on its own, after the jump.
Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.
Ninth in the series, we look at the San Diego Padres. Ranked 2nd overall by John Sickels, they have 0 A-rated prospects, but they're stocked in terms of B-rated prospects with 15. In Keith Law's organizational rankings released yesterday, he has them at #1 overall. Here's what KLAW says:
Without Anthony Rizzo, they no longer have a top-25 prospect in their system, but in terms of total future value of players likely to play significant roles in the big leagues, they're ahead of everyone else. Some of these players, especially from the 2011 draft, will develop into stars. But there are so many prospects here with high floors, players who would be top-10 or top-five in other systems but are 11-20 here (such as Robbie Erlin or Edinson Rincon), that they are well-positioned to compete even with modest major league payrolls during the next five to six years. Fans who were upset at the sudden departures of GM Jed Hoyer and assistant GM Jason McLeod for the Cubs should find solace in the fact that the prospects they helped bring into the system (along with many other scouts and execs, including Chris Gwynn, now with Seattle, and Jaron Madison and Randy Smith, still in San Diego) remain in place.
With the Padres top-ranked system, how long is it going to take before it all clicks?
Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.
Eighth in the series, we look at the Cleveland Indians. Ranked 27th overall by John Sickels, they have 0 A-rated prospects, 3 B-rated prospects, and 18 that are C-rated. Here's what Sickels says about their abundance of C-rated talent:
Indians fans may be discouraged by the large number of C+ grades, but they shouldn't be. While some of those C+s are future role players or relievers, the younger members of the group are high-ceiling guys who are just too raw or far away to get a higher grade just yet, but who could blossom within the next year or two. I'm thinking particularly of Araujo, Sterling, and the group of hitters who were backing them up in the Arizona Rookie League. The 2013 and 2014 lists could see a lot of those guys bumped up into the B-range (or maybe even higher) if they develop properly.
How does this system full of lower level talent affect their window to compete?
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