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Beyond the Box Score

A Graphic Look at the Window to Win: Minnesota Twins


Twins-window_medium

Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

Seventh in the series, we look at the Minnesota Twins. Ranked 17th overall by John Sickels, they have 0 A-rated prospects, they have 12 B-rated prospects (most of them B-).

What does a middle-of-the-pack farm system mean in terms of affecting their window to compete?

Star-divide

While most of their 3/4 of their B-rated prospects are position players, only 4 of these guys, 1B Chris Parmelee, OF Joe Benson, and RHP Liam Hendriks, are set to see Target Field this season. Another one to note, SS/3B Brian Dozier will come up in 2013. The Joe Benson addition can lead to hopes of a 20-20 middle of the order bat/stud in the outfield. Here's what their 2012 lineup looks like:

*New acquisition, Current roster info from MLB Depth Charts

Starting Lineup
1 CF Denard Span
2 SS Jamey Carroll*
3 C Joe Mauer
4 1B Justin Morneau
5 RF Josh Willingham*
6 DH Ryan Doumit*
7 3B Danny Valencia
8 2B Alexi Casilla
9 LF Ben Revere

Bench
C Drew Butera
IF Luke Hughes
IF Tsuyoshi Nishioka
OF Trevor Plouffe

Starting Rotation
1 RHP Carl Pavano
2 LHP Francisco Liriano
3 RHP Scott Baker
4 RHP Nick Blackburn
5 RHP Jason Marquis*

Bullpen
CL RHP Matt Capps
SU LHP Glen Perkins
SU RHP Joel Zumaya*
MID LHP Brian Duensing
MID RHP Alex Burnett
MID RHP Anthony Swarzak
LR RHP Terry Doyle*

Currently Scott Baker (2013 option) and Nick Blackburn (2014 option) are their only obligations past this season. While it's too early to see if some of the B-/C+ prospects coming up starting in 2013 will be a difference, it's obvious they need to make some moves to solidify their starting pitching after this season.

If the Twins can stay healthy and get some good contribution from Mauer and Morneau, they 'd be able to stay competitive with their current group otherwise wait till 2014 for their top prospects Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and wild card Aaron Hicks can catch up and make a splash. It was just a couple years ago in 2010 that they've managed to win back-to-back division titles, so ignoring the disaster of the 2011 season, winning now isn't outside the realm of possibility.

See the previous graphics in this series: Mariners | Athletics | Astros | Cubs | Pirates | Royals

Check out FUNGraphs.info or follow me @cobradave for more.

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Comments

2012 Draft

The Twins would be well served to target high impact pitching in this year’s draft. If they could get a couple guys that are closer to MLB ready (ala Gibson was), their 2014/15 outlook wouldn’t look too bad:
C Mauer
1B Parm
2B Dozier/Rosario
SS Michael
3B Sano
LF Hicks/Arcia
CF Revere
RF Benson

SP1 Gibson
SP2 Hendricks
SP3-5 ???

What do you think is gonna happen with Morneau?

Would you also try to hang on to Scott Baker?

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