Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.
Sixth in the series, we look at the Kansas City Royals. Ranked 6th overall by John Sickels, they have 1 A-rated prospect in OF Wil Meyers, and a whopping 12 B-rated prospects. Looking at last years list from Sickels, it must be exciting to see two A-rated prospects in Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas producing early. Hosmer looked pretty dialed in last season, even outperforming Moustakas (Hosmer: wRC+ 114, Moustakas: wRC+ 85), but while two of their best prospects graduated from their systems, they remain pretty well stocked.
With their young studs, is their window open right now?
Their top prospect Myers will be ready as soon as late 2012 and could be fighting for Jeff Francoeur's RF spot very soon. In the most recent top 100 list from MLB.com, Myers was 19th. Here's what they said about his ceiling:
A good right-field prototype with a plus arm and the kind of bat that will be a major run producer in the middle of a lineup.
The top pitcher in their system, RHP Jake Odorizzi could come up in 2013 as a 2nd or 3rd starter, depending on what happens to Jonathan Sanchez or Bruce Chen this season. Considering the majority their prospects are pitchers, this rotation can possibly change quite a bit starting in 2013. Here's what the Royals are looking for their lineup starting the season:
*New acquisition, Current roster info from MLB Depth Charts
Starting Lineup
1 LF Alex Gordon
2 2B Johnny Giavotella
3 1B Eric Hosmer
4 DH Billy Butler
5 3B Mike Moustakas
6 RF Jeff Francoeur
7 C Salvador Perez
8 CF Lorenzo Cain
9 SS Alcides Escobar
Bench
C Brayan Peña
IF Yuniesky Betancourt*
IF Chris Getz
OF Mitch Maier
Starting Rotation
1 RHP Luke Hochevar
2 LHP Jonathan Sanchez*
3 LHP Bruce Chen
4 RHP Aaron Crow
5 RHP Felipe Paulino
Bullpen
CL RHP Joakim Soria
SU RHP Jonathan Broxton*
SU RHP Greg Holland
MID LHP Tim Collins
MID RHP Louis Coleman
MID LHP Jose Mijares*
LR LHP Everett Teaford
Improving steadily by 4 wins last year, the arrivals of Hosmer and Moustakas is definitely promising, and exciting staples of their corner infield spots for years to come. Clay Davenport has them at 73 wins, a 2 win improvement, while the new MARCEL projections have them at 79. I believe they can get 79. With these projections in mind, and the arrivals of Myers and Odorizzi late this year or in 2013, looks like their window is starting to open in 2013.
See the previous graphics in this series: Mariners | Athletics | Astros | Cubs | Pirates
Check out FUNGraphs.info or follow me @cobradave for more.
1 recs | 12 comments
Getting Close!
not there yet but it will take a few more pitchers taking a great leap forward for it to happen. That said I would bet that one of Duffy, Montgomery or Crow has a future as a well above average MLB starter. If Cain and JohnnyG can lock down the two up the middle spots this team is looking at a very affordable high ceiling lineup 2012-2017.
TomCat009 - January 30, 2012
They money to put into draft compensation is paying off already.
David Fung - January 30, 2012
Yes, I think the clock is running
RoyalsRetro - January 30, 2012
That's a great graphic!
David Fung - January 30, 2012
Yeah, Retro!
Good job.
hawkinscm87 - January 30, 2012
Retro didn't make that, unless he works for the Royals.
That’s the actual slogan this year. LOL
Justin Bopp - January 30, 2012
Yeah, I should've used sarcasm font, but didn't know if that was universal.
hawkinscm87 - January 30, 2012
It's an encouraging graph for Royals fans
I don’t think the window is open yet, but it should be soon. And the depth in the system hopefully means that the Royals will be competing for a long time to come.
Only major complaint is that the graph leaves off Duffy
Loose Seal - January 30, 2012
Unfortunately, since I base off the of the top 20 lists of Goldstein and Sickels there's always a few people that wil be left out.
David Fung - January 30, 2012
Under what circumstances do major leaguers get left out?
hawkinscm87 - January 30, 2012
That's a hard question to answer.
I err on the side on prospects have higher ceilings rather than fill in the gap guys. I start with the 25 man rosters and work from there. I’m trying to keep the list from getting out of control. The first one I did, the A’s one got too complicated, so I started cutting it down a little.
David Fung - January 30, 2012
Yeah, i get the methodology and don't see an easy fix
Once you start tinkering by putting Duffy back in, it loses the objectivity of it.
Loose Seal - January 30, 2012
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