Hall of wWAR vs. Hall of Fame vs. Hall of Merit

by adarowski on Jan 3, 2012 9:00 AM EST in Visuals Above Replacement

Between my own Hall of wWAR, the National Baseball Hall of Fame, and Baseball Think Factory's Hall of Merit, there are now three "Halls" that honor the game's best players. So, how do they compare?

Click for interactive version.

There's just so much to take from this. First, there is consensus on 144 players. One would think that those would be the 144 best players of all time. Well, one would be wrong. Here is a list of the top players (by wWAR/norm) who are not in all three Halls.

First	Last	Position	wWAR/norm	wWAR/norm Rank
Jeff	Bagwell	1b	132.6	50
Bob	Caruthers	p	120.8	57
Pete	Rose	lf	116.1	63
Shoeless Joe	Jackson	lf	115.0	66
Bill	Dahlen	ss	113.2	70
Deacon	White	3b	107.1	81
Ross	Barnes	2b	105.3	86
Jack	Glasscock	ss	104.3	88
Edgar	Martinez	dh	100.5	96
Barry	Larkin	ss	100.2	99
Bobby	Grich	2b	99.9	100
Alan	Trammell	ss	99.3	102
Larry	Walker	rf	98.8	103
Ted	Simmons	c	98.3	105
Dick	Allen	1b	98.1	106
Kevin	Brown	p	95.9	114
Jim	Wynn	cf	95.1	118
Lou	Whitaker	2b	93.4	122
Wes	Ferrell	p	93.2	123
Sal	Bando	3b	93.0	124
Joe	Torre	c	91.9	131
Rick	Reuschel	p	91.9	132
Mark	McGwire	1b	91.3	133
Keith	Hernandez	1b	90.8	134
Thurman	Munson	c	90.1	136
Tim	Raines	lf	89.8	138
Rafael	Palmeiro	1b	89.6	139
Tony	Mullane	p	88.7	143
Charlie	Buffinton	p	88.4	144

That's just those who appear in the Top 144 eligible players. Here, I obviously use "eligible" as meaning "retired for five years". Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson obviously are not eligible for the Hall of Fame.

I just can't believe we have a Top 50 player who is struggling to get in the Hall of Fame.

One thing that makes me quite happy about this visual is how much more in sync the Hall of wWAR is with the Hall of Merit than it is with the Hall of Fame. For example, the Hall of Merit contains just 26 players who are not in the Hall of wWAR. Meanwhile, the Hall of Fame contains 64 players who are not in the Hall of wWAR. Those two groups have an overlap of 15 players. Five of them (Ralph Kiner, Clark Griffith, Enos Slaughter, Roger Bresnahan, and Sam Thompson) rank among the Top 25 players outside of the Hall of wWAR.

In fact, 49 players appear in the Hall of Fame but not either of the others. Just 11 players appear only in the Hall of Merit while 17 players grace only the Hall of wWAR. That's a list I'm particularly interested in—the players enshrined by my Hall of wWAR, but not the others.

First	Last	Position	wWAR/norm
Sal	Bando	3b	93.0
Thurman	Munson	c	90.1
Tony	Mullane	p	88.7
Charlie	Buffinton	p	88.4
Luis	Tiant	p	86.3
Gene	Tenace	c	84.9
Buddy	Bell	3b	84.2
John	Olerud	1b	84.0
Silver	King	p	82.8
Orel	Hershiser	p	82.3
Bobby	Bonds	rf	80.6
Eddie	Cicotte	p	79.5
Jim	McCormick	p	78.6
Kevin	Appier	p	76.7
Wilbur	Wood	p	76.7
Cesar	Cedeno	cf	76.6
Frank	Tanana	p	76.2

Here's another interesting table—the best players not in any of the Halls (the top 30):

First	Last	Position	wWAR/norm
Willie	Davis	cf	75.9
Jerry	Koosman	p	75.6
Chuck	Finley	p	75.4
Robin	Ventura	3b	75.2
Tommy	Bond	p	74.8
Urban	Shocker	p	74.5
Larry	Jackson	p	74.0
Carl	Mays	p	73.0
Ron	Cey	3b	72.9
Dwight	Gooden	p	72.6
Babe	Adams	p	72.4
Tommy	John	p	72.4
Bob	Johnson	lf	72.3
Norm	Cash	1b	72.1
Darrell	Porter	c	71.5
Tommy	Bridges	p	71.4
Ned	Williamson	3b	71.3
Bob	Elliott	3b	71.3
Tommy	Leach	cf	71.1
Jack	Clark	rf	70.8
Fred	McGriff	1b	70.8
Wilbur	Cooper	p	70.3
Wally	Schang	c	70.1
Jose	Cruz	lf	70.0
Dale	Murphy	cf	69.7
Jim	Fregosi	ss	68.9
Mark	Langston	p	68.8
George	Burns	1b	68.7
Mike	Tiernan	rf	68.7
Bernie	Williams	cf	68.7

What a list of excellent, somewhat forgotten players.

Update: I have tweaked this a bit because since I grabbed the data Rafael Palmeiro, David Cone, and Rick Reuschel were inducted to the Hall of Merit. (Thanks to @RAWagman)

Please be sure to check out the interactive visualization. Anything else jump out at you?

Please note that the visualization requires a modern browser (such as Chrome, Safari, or Firefox) to render properly. Are you a web development geek? This and all other Hall of wWAR-related visuals is open-sourced on GitHub.

1 recs | 11 comments

Comments

Great stuff as always, Adam.

My initial observation is the Hall of wWAR only group of 20 players is a much stronger group the 11 who are in the Hall of Merit only.

Dan McCloskey - January 3, 2012 reply

I was just informed that the list is now 17.

Rafael Palmeiro, David Cone, and Rick Reuschel were inducted to the Hall of Merit since I pulled the data. I’ve updated the post and visual.

It’s funny—while the Hall of wWAR added a TON of 19th century guys, the Hall of Merit adds even more. The Merit’s list includes Lip Pike, someone I definitely would support for the Hall (but he doesn’t reflect well in wWAR because much of his career was pre-1871).

adarowski - January 3, 2012 reply

And to think, Adam's the Big Hall guy

Justin Bopp - January 3, 2012 reply

Popular misconception.

The only reason the Hall of wWAR has as many players as it does is because that’s the exact same number as the Hall of Fame. I’d probably cut back by about 40 players or so. But what’s done is done.

In fact, my next visual will focus on what, exactly, was “done”.

adarowski - January 3, 2012 reply

Wait, I thought you said you were a big hall guy. Not based on results of wWAR.

Justin Bopp - January 3, 2012 reply

I guess it depends what you mean by "big hall".

There are a ton of guys who are not in who I think should be, so perhaps that (by definition) make me a big hall guy. But the reality is I feel at least 50 guys in there don’t belong there.

adarowski - January 3, 2012 reply

Great stuff

Lots to take from this, primarily the 49 in the HOF but not in the others and the 45 players in wWAR and HOM but not HOF.

Chris St. John - January 3, 2012 reply

I think we should just trade the two groups. :)

adarowski - January 3, 2012 reply

Good stuff as always.

Dave Gershman - January 3, 2012 reply

Intriguing work and thanks for the insight

Adam…Thanks for delving deeply into baseball history and attempting to quantify the greatest of past ballplayers. I am a voter at the Baseball Think Factory Hall of Merit and agree with many of your choices. Below are some notes/justification for why differences exist between your personal Hall of Fame and the Hall of Merit – every voter has a personal opinion – I am only trying to serve the collective in sharing general viewpoints, not my own judgments and beliefs.

A breakdown of players not in the wWAR Hall but in the Hall of Merit:
Pioneers – pre-NA value not-captured in WAR
Start 1860/70s 1B – pioneering great
Wright 1860s/1870s ss – pioneering great
Pike 1860s OF – elected based upon pre-NA play – tough to gauge.
Pearce 1860s SS – pioneering great
McVey 1870s – not pre-NA but dominate hitter, split between C, 1B, and OF, another toughie

WW credit – huge boost
Keller 1940s OF – WWII credit
Slaughter 1940s OF – WWII credit

1800s extra credit
Galvin 1880s – SP – IA 1870s -minors – comparable to NL – weak support positional voting
Richardson 1880s 2B – 1878 IA – fine hitter split between 2B/OF
Cjones 1880s – OF slugger – voted in with blacklist credit for 1881_1882 – very low support
Griffith 1890s SP – very low support, contraction 1892 dominate in minors

WW credit – small boost – all lukewarm supported candidates
Rixey SP – 1918 WWI credit – very low support, awesome Joe Dimino’s PA and WARP1-3
Doerr 1945 WWII credit – weak support
Kiner 1950s OF – WWII credit – very low support

System interpretational factors:
Groh 1910s NL star – replacement levels Dan WAR and WARP differ – show MVP caliber seasons
Sheckard 1900s OF – all-time great defender in some systems – not in WAR.
Carey 1920s OF – sublime defense/baserunning in some systems – not in WAR.

Weak candidates the electorate and I barely support:
Pierce 1950s SP – very low support, light on electees in time era, monster WPA totals
Bresnahan 1900s C – Last catcher elected
Sewell 1920s SS/3B – weakest supported shortstop

Weak candidates in WAR, aided by Win Shares/outside credit
Averill 1930s OF – weak support – 1920s PCL credit voted him in
Thompson 1890s OF – weakest supported right fielder
Roush 1910s OF – very low support, 1922 backlist/holdout credit

For many voters: mistake selections:
Fingers 1970s RP – lowest support and % votes
Fox 1950s 2B – considered worst selection by many – would need a revision of fielding prowess
Browning 1880s OF – very weak support – a slugger in weak league with poor to awful fielding

Players in the wWAR not in the Hall of Merit:
Includes your baseline figure and a total removing post season value, since this is not something that is generally factored into the Hall of Merit valuations, as not all players have an equal opportunity to shine in the postseason:

Strong support from HOM electorate
Bando 3B 93 92.5 Dan R – replacement values say far off
Willis SP 85.3 85.7 Borderline case – hitting was atrocious
Bell 3B 84.2 84.2 Borderline case – unless you love DRA, in which case he definitely belongs
Tiant SP 86.3 84 70s cohort historically excellent keeping
Bonds RF 80.6 80.7 Borderline call – best through WAR lens

Challenging to place in context:
Buffinton SP 88.4 88.4 1891 competition awful – strong 1880s cohort
Munson C 90.1 86.6 Divides the HOM in/out line
Tenace C/1B 84.9 82.9 Tough to allocate catcher bonuses
Olerud 1B 84 82.7 Amazing 1B cohort – Dan R replacement levels

Demerits to league strength/cheating – limited HOM support
Mullane SP 88.7 88.7 45 ft era 1882-1889 weaker league
King SP 82.8 82.8 45 ft era 1887-1889 weak leagues
McCormick SP 78.6 78.6 45 ft era Awful 1884 Union Association
Cicotte SP 79.5 78.6 Discounts to 1919/20 seasons

A smidge over the wwar line – limited HOM support
Cedeno CF 76.6 77.2
Hershiser SP 82.3 77 No postseason in HOM
Appier SP 76.7 76.9
Wood SP 76.7 76.7
Tanana SP 76.2 76.6

One main link to follow:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/hall_of_merit_ballot_discussion_and_results_thread

This webpage has a link to many landmark documents on the website, including yearly voting and all-time positional rankings.

The gentlemen you have as the largest oversight is Sal Bando. A lively discussion has taken place regarding the replacement levels used to evaluate Bando and his teammate, Bert Campaneris, an overlooked great ballplayer.

New York Times writer Dan Rosenheck has developed a valuation system for ranking the greatest hitters of all-time, and he discusses his system in posts 230-235.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/hall_of_merit/discussion/2012_ballot_discussion/P200

From post 35 of the 2008 results thread, follower Lemon Curry has a wrap on the total % votes garnered by the electees…while not perfect, it does a pretty fine job in representing the strength of the candidates and thoughts of the voters over the years (2002-present!)

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/2008_results

Bleed the Freak - January 5, 2012 reply

This is absolutely fantastic. Thanks so much for commenting!

wWAR completely disregards the 1860s, so it is no surprise that many of the non-HOW players come from that decade. We also don’t factor in WWII credit, which is something I go back and forth on.

Thanks again!

adarowski - January 9, 2012 reply

Beyond the Box Score