Roy Oswalt appears headed for St. Louis in 2012, joining the defending World Series champion Cardinals. The Red Sox, still in need of help for their starting rotation, were hoping to land Oswalt and had even traded Marco Scutaro away to make room under the luxury tax to sign the right hander.
In the end. Oswalt appears headed back to the NL Central where he spent most of his career. The Cardinals don't currently have room in their rotation for Oswalt and will likely have to move either Kyle Lohse of Jake Westbrook, unless one of them is willing to move to the bullpen (although that's a bit crowded at the moment).
Lohse is set to make a little over $12M this year and will be a free agent in 2013. Westbrook is under contract for $8.5M next year and his contract has an $8.5M mutual option for 2013 ($1M buyout if team declines the option). Over the past few seasons, Lohse has been the more valuable pitcher, racking up more fWAR per start compared to Westbrook. And even with a shortened season, Oswalt put up 1.4 more fWAR than Westbrook in 2011.
Given the modest buyout, my guess is that Westbrook becomes the more likely trade candidate here. He's a ground all pitcher that, while a tad overpriced for a 1 win starter (assuming 2012 is similar to 2011), will get you around 180+ innings each year.
So who might be interested? How about the Red Sox?
While the market has slimmed down for his services, Edwin Jackson is still likely to cost the same or more than Roy Oswalt given his age and the fact that he'll want more than a one-year deal. The Red Sox have approached Jackson's agent about the possibility of a one-year deal, but that agent's name is Scott Boras. And while the market may have slimmed for Jackson, you can bet Boras will use the Sox need for a starter to squeeze whatever he can from the front office.
Westbrook is a ground ball pitcher (2.35 GB/FB) who, when you look at various ERA estimators, hasn't performed that different from Jackson. His tERA over the past three years (well, two for Westbrook) is better than Jackson's (4.43 v. 4.36) and his SIERA was higher, but only by .08. Given the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway, a back of the rotation ground ball starter could be a good fit, especially since the financial investment would be low and the $1M buy out next year allows the Red Sox the financial and roster flexibility they were seeking with Oswalt.
Of course, the logic of such a deal would depend on what the Cardinals would ask for in return. The Red Sox have talked to the White Sox about a deal for Gavin Floyd. Trading higher-ceiling prospects for an established, 29 year-old starter makes sense, but obviously wouldn't for a guy like Westbrook. Given that the Cardinals have to either trade or release Westbrook to make room for Oswalt, the Red Sox might have enough leverage to get an acceptable deal for the right hander.
Whether Westbrook would be that much better than one of the reliever-converts or veteran pitchers who are currently competing for a spot is unclear. But with Westbrook you pretty much know what you are getting--a ground-ball innings eater with a low price tag and even lower buy out for 2013.
Just a thought.
0 recs | 12 comments
I would say "no"
unless you get him for nearly nothing along with the Cardinals eating almost all of his salary.
Xeifrank - January 28, 2012
Honestly, I think that might be realistic
The Cardinals seem to see 2012 as a year to go for it, and not just to assuage fans after Pujols’ departure or something like that. The bullpen is kind of crowded, they should have a solid positional core (if a little old and a little risky, at least the old guys are affordable and short term) and they might just be looking to replace Westbrook with Oswalt whatever it takes.
mattybobo - January 28, 2012
Lackey to the Cardinals for Westbrook, BoSox eat the salary difference
tehzachatak - January 28, 2012
Westbrook has a no-trade clause.
I didn’t see it mentioned. Pretty sure both Lohse and Westbrook have said earlier this offseason that they wouldn’t waive them either.
Alex Grady - January 28, 2012
Good point
I hadn’t seen the no-trade clause. Well, for the purpose of the article above let’s assume they find away to get him to waive it :)
Bill Petti - January 28, 2012
Well
he would be leaving one contender for another, although he probably has a higher chance of making the playoffs in the central.
dasox313 - January 29, 2012
If the Sox trade for Westbrook and the Cards send some cash, how does that affect the luxury tax?
Does W’s whole salary count against the Sox, or just what they’re actually paying?
WHYG Zane Smith - January 29, 2012
Roy Oswalt should be enough to make the Cardinals the favorites to win the N.L. Central in 2012
91bigten - January 29, 2012
it seems to me that failing to address the huge disparity in FIP between jackson and westbrook is a pretty big
gap in this analysis. jackson’s FIPs in reverse chronological order are 3.55, 3.86, and 4.20. westbrook’s last three full-season FIPs are 4.22, 4.25, and 4.33. jackson also gets about one more K per nine. i don’t put much trust in tERA as a predictive marker, and (per fangraphs) SIERA shows a .21 difference between jackson and westbrook in 2011 (4.01 v. 4.22). in 2010, the difference was .22 (3.85 v. 4.07).
jake westbrook seems to be steady back-of-the-rotation filler. jackson seems to be a significantly better pitcher. now, some might think that jackson’s improvement in the last three seasons is merely good luck, but, given the steady improvement over several seasons, that seems highly debatable. i think this article unreasonably conflates the two based on limited and (w/r/t SIERA data) possibly incorrect information.
tom s. - January 30, 2012
tERA actually has the highest correlation with Year 2 ERA than any other ERA estimator
I wasn’t saying they are a wash. I was saying that if the Red Sox are leary about sinking multiple years into Jackson, Westbrook may not be a bad one year fill in given the dollars and buy out. Besides, he’s a ground ball pitcher, so the risk is less in terms of bringing him to Fenway and the AL East than a fly ball pitcher like Jackson. For this comparison, I think an ERA estimator that takes into account batted ball profile is helpful.
Bill Petti - January 30, 2012
westbrook "hasn't performed that different from Jackson" sounds a bit like "they're a wash."
and a statement about how they’ve performed in the past has nothing to do with how either might play in fenway.
i’m not sure what you’re relying on to say tERA is the most predictive. it looks to me like tERA is one of the worst options.
i see what you’re saying about batted balls, but, even if you don’t necessarily believe that jackson’s FIP is predictive, it might be worth noting it, so that people get the full picture.
tom s. - January 30, 2012
I think there's a difference, but I guess the language isn't as strong as it could be
For ERA estimators…
See here: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/1/9/2690405/what-starting-pitcher-metrics-correlate-year-to-year
Sky was going about the analysis differently than I did, so that accounts for the difference.
As for FIP, I never said it wasn’t predictive—all the estimators are quite good. It depends on what you are trying to do. Like I said, given the Fenway angle I wanted to look at those estimators that took batted ball into account. People can always look at an analysis a different way (as you did), so I don’t think you need to (or can) jam every possible point into a ~500 word post.
Bill Petti - January 31, 2012
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