Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.
Fourth in this series, we look at the Chicago Cubs. Ranked 20th overall by John Sickels, they have 3 B-rated prospects in 1B Anthony Rizzo, OF Brett Jackson, and 1B Dan Vogelbach and 2 B-rated pitchers on their way (RHP Trey McNutt and RHP Dillon Maples).
With rebuilding the philosophy moving forward, when are the Cubs best set up to compete?
#1 and #2 prospects in their system, OF Brett Jackson and 1B Anthony Rizzo will both possibly make their way up some time this season. Being their sole B+ prospects, the Cubs should hope they grow into cornerstones in their respective positions. In this past year's draft, they look like they got a pretty good prospect in SS/3B Javier Baez. Sickels says in his 2012 report:
Outstanding bat speed, should hit for average and power. Questions revolve around future position as well as volatile personality. Higher ceiling than Jackson or Rizzo but we need to clear these issues up first.
Baez if all goes according to plans, will make it right as Ian Stewart's contract is up at the end of 2014. Here's what they're looking at for 2012:
*New acquisition, Current roster info from MLB Depth Charts
Starting Lineup
1 RF David DeJesus*
2 SS Starlin Castro
3 CF Marlon Byrd
4 1B Bryan LaHair
5 LF Alfonso Soriano
6 C Geovany Soto
7 3B Ian Stewart*
8 2B Darwin Barney
Bench
C Welington Castillo
IF/OF Blake DeWitt
IF/OF Jeff Baker
OF Tony Campana
OF Reed Johnson
Starting Rotation
1 RHP Matt Garza
2 RHP Ryan Dempster
3 LHP Paul Maholm*
4 RHP Randy Wells
5 RHP Chris Volstad*
Bullpen
CL RHP Carlos Marmol
SU RHP Kerry Wood
SU RHP Jeff Samardzija
MID LHP Scott Maine
MID RHP Manuel Corpas*
MID LHP James Russell
LR RHP Lendy Castillo*
Cubs fans, correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like aside from Jackson and RIzzo, there's not much in terms of quality prospects in AA/AAA. According to Cots, in 2014, their only non-arbitration-eligible contracts will be those of Alfonso Soriano ($19M, ouch!) and David DeJesus ($1.5M). It seems most likely sometime in or around 2014 when RHP Trey McNutt and OF Matt Szczur will be on their way up, will be when their window starts.
See the previous graphics in this series: Mariners | Athletics | Astros
Check out FUNGraphs.info or follow me @cobradave for more.
1 recs | 5 comments
I think the goal for the Cubs for 2013-2014
Is to put a young team that can win games on the field and hope that, by the start of the 2014 season, they’re prospect situation is much improved. They’ll have 2 top-10 draft picks before 2014 starts and they should get at least one B+ to A- prospect for Garza. The days of drafting cheap college players in the first round look to be over for the Cubs.
Also, I don’t put any stock in the idea that any of the C+ or lower Cubs set to be on the ML team by 2014 will be every-day starters other than (maybe) Vitters. I do expect that a lot of players from this list get traded by opening day 2014.
subtle - January 25, 2012
You're discounting what a C+ grade from Sickels can mean...
A lot of these guys are C+ with the opportunity to make major leaps forward. Guys like Ben Wells who have the makings of a #3 starter, and if he starts to show that will more likely move into the B- to B range instead of C+.
Theo and Jed will certainly shake up the farm system in the coming years, but to discount a prospect because they are C+ in the first year of minor league service isn’t fair to them. Go look at Sickels’ notes on the Cubs – he states right in his rankings that he believes they could make a major leap forward next year with progression from some of their young prospects.
bdlugz - January 25, 2012
I agree. The advantage that some of these lower level prospects is that they have the time to grow.
It’s good to get a reminder of what C rating means, which I forget sometimes too.
Thanks for the feedback everyone.
David Fung - January 25, 2012
Awesome graphic.
And, though I’m no prospect expert, I’d agree with your conclusion of 2014 as the year the window will most likely open. Of course, the Cubs are a relatively high payroll team, so they could conceivably accelerate their window depending on the FA market. But Theo & Jed seem to be taking things pretty methodically, so 2014 still seems right.
daver - January 25, 2012
One possible omission as pointed out on BCB:
Travis Wood.
daver - January 25, 2012
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