In the tenth and final graphic in the series, we look at how to replace runs the Tampa Bay Rays will be losing due to free agency. Not a team that will be making as any major moves this offseason, they need to fill holes left by both Casey Kotchman and Johnny Damon. Earlier in the offseason, John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach were replaced partially by Jose Molina.
Instead of just using runs scored straight up, I've used wRC (weighted runs created) and wRAA (weighted runs above average) to get a more accurate reading. 2012 projections are from Bill James data on Fangraphs.
Click after the jump to see how the Rays can stay competitive.
The Shoppach/Jaso platoon had worked, and while they're both projected at 59 wRC, Molina at his projected 20 wRC won't cut it. Assuming Jose Lobaton is replacement level (last season, replacement level was about 14 wRC, in 81 games, see Eli Whiteside and Humberto Quintero), it'll be slightly below Shoppach/Jaso:
2012 Projections based off Bill James data on Fangraphs. ^ indicates improvement
Shoppach/Jaso: 59 wRC
Molina/Lobaton: 34 wRC
At DRaysBay, they ask the question, Is Johnny Damon Worth Re-signing?. Short answer, yes. The other options I'd recommend at their price range, Vladimir Guerrero, and Luke Scott, all will produce similar wRC results.
Damon: 62 wRC
Guerrero: 68 wRC (Has better L/R splits)
Scott: 75 wRC
See "Looking at the DH Options" at DRaysBay
The latest rumors in terms of both Casey Kotchman, and Damon, is that there's no action in terms of re-signing. Although Kotchman had a pretty good year in 2011, 79 wRC, his 2012 projection is much lower at 45 wRC. Now I'm not the best at guessing contracts, but assuming that Carlos Pena and Scott Boras would ask for more money than the Rays would like to pay. He did make $10M last year, but for less Derrek Lee could possible give you the same production. There was also discussion about this at DRaysBay.
Hope everyone enjoyed the series!
Click image or here for full size graphic. Check out the previous in this series: A's | Mets | Brewers | Cubs | Cardinals | Nationals | Pirates | Giants | Dodgers
Check out FUNGraphs.info or follow me @cobradave for more.
1 recs | 13 comments
The Rays need to focus on adding a lefty bat that doesn't need to play a position. I did some Marcels for LHB vs. Righties over here:
http://fanvsfan.com/articles/panhandling-for-a-rays-designated-hitter
Here’s the chart:
Posada, Drew, and Scott have similar expectations for success against righties, but there are plenty of other guys out there that profile similarly that may bring more upside. I’d have no problem with the Rays bringing J.D. Drew in with the idea of splitting DH duties between him and Canzler. The fact that his name hasn’t been bandied around even once leads me to believe that he would come at a reasonable cost. Scott may be getting more media attention, but he’s not appreciably different at the dish, though he will probably sign for more money.
Sandy Kazmir - January 10, 2012
As attractive as someone like D Lee or Konerko might look in the Rays lineup, I don't see them going into game 1 with Brignac, Fuld, and Joyce as the only lefties on the team.
Sandy Kazmir - January 10, 2012
The Rays need a higher smile %
DeadeyeRR - January 10, 2012
Considering it's not my money, I'd love to add a .373 wOBA against righties with basically average defense for 1B
Drew for DH against righties and do your best to find time for Guyer & Canzler
C Molina/Lobaton
1B Pena
2B Zobrist
3B Longoria
SS Brignac/Rodriguez
LF Jennings
CF Upton
RF Joyce/Guyer
DH Drew/Canzler
This leaves Fuld off the roster. I hope Joyce shows progression at 1B over the offseason and surprises people in ST. You can save a bunch of money by forgetting Pena, moving Joyce to 1B and letting Fuld/Guyer play RF. Fuld’s horrendous stretch where he was pretty beat up and probably playing too much with his medical condition over-shadowed a pretty solid player even at the plate.
Sandy Kazmir - January 10, 2012
Hard to argue there.
Joyce has been working at first?
DeadeyeRR - January 10, 2012
You heard it here
Sandy Kazmir - January 10, 2012
Thanks Sandy for the LHB splits.
When I took a surface look, Scott didn’t look that bad, but Damon a little better. I’m really interested in seeing what is going to happen with Drew. He seems like an extreme buy low candidate.
David Fung - January 10, 2012
The fact that he's one of the best options out there speaks more to the dearth of the market at this point
I think the idea right now is that there are 3-4 guys that are relatively interchangeable, so why be the first team to go out and set the market for these guys when you can sit back, let someone else show the market ceiling while coming in later and scooping up a similar guy for most likely less money. Which team is going to blink first between the Rays, Indians, Mariners, etc…
Sandy Kazmir - January 10, 2012
Another thing I had questioned on DRaysBay is what about Pena at 1B?
Would you offer him a one year contract with a club option? Just not sure he’s gonna ask for.
David Fung - January 10, 2012
wRC
Why is wRC being used and not wRC+? Just curious.
MauerFan - January 10, 2012
I wanted a rate stat I could add up together.
It wouldn’t make as much sense to add wRC+ together to see what runs to replace.
David Fung - January 11, 2012
Gotcha
I’ve just never used wRC, that’s why I asked.
MauerFan - January 11, 2012
It was the best rate stat I could find for offense.
There’s been a couple of people asking me why I didn’t account for defense, but maybe the next time around, I could switch to wRAA and UZR and I’d be able to predict their WAR with a little bit of calculation.
David Fung - January 11, 2012
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